VA-Sen: John Warner Hangs Up His Spurs

Sen. John Warner (R-VA) just announced that he will not seek re-election in 2008. Earlier in the week, James provided an excellent rundown of the ramifications of Warner's retirement.

Update (David): Looks like there is already at least one Draft Warner site up, but it's not, uh, very interactive. Are there any others?

9 thoughts on “VA-Sen: John Warner Hangs Up His Spurs”

  1. Maine- Rep.Allen beats Sen.Collins 50%-50%

    New Hampshire- Fmr.Gov.Shaheen beats Sen.Sununu 57%-43%

    Virginia- Fmr.Gov.Warner beats Rep.Davis 59%-41%

    North Carolina- Might be in play

    Kentucky- Might be in play

    Tennessee- Might be in play

    Louisiana- DEMs keep

    Minnesota- Frankeen beats Sen.Coleman 51%-49%

    South Dakota- Dems keep

    Nebraska- Might be in play

    Oklahoma- Might be in play

    Texas- Noriga beats Cornyn 50%-49%

    New Mexico- Might be in play

    Colorado- Udall beats schafer 53%-47%

    Oregon- Merkley beats Sen.Smith 51%-49%

    Alaska-Might be in play

  2. John Warner has been a statesman.  He has served his country to the best of his ability for decades.  As he enters his last lap of public service, he should be respectfully remembered.

    That said, I want to see at least a few “Draft Mark Warner” sites up by the end of Labor Day weekend!

    Don’t be discouraged, though, if Mark doesn’t get in right away.  Let’s say he got in next week.  And polls show him beating both Tom Davis and Jim Gilmore by healthy margins.  Well, that doesn’t deter Gilmore – he has nothing to lose.  But, it could deter Davis.  If polls have Davis down considerably and he’d still have to get through a bloody primary just to face the more popular Mark Warner, Davis might, shockingly, back down and just hold onto his House seat rather than risk it.  But Dems could take that House seat if Davis does go for the promotion.  So, let Mark Warner take a little time to think about it as, hopefully, both Davis and Gilmore step forward and kick off a bloody GOP primary.

    1. New Mexico might be in play. Dominici’s approval ratings have been slipping since the US Attorney stuff leaked out, against the larger background of the Iraq Occupation, Bush’s low approvals, the damaged Repub brand, etc. Objects in motion tend to remain in motion, and that’s true of approval ratings for long-serving Senators. Dominici’s approvals will not stop their slide, nor reverse course either.

      Kansas might be in play if you look at Sen Robert’s approval ratings, and the recent trend in that state.

      Wyoming might be in play because of the curious situation of having TWO open Senate seats. The usual calculations may not apply.

      And, OTH, Louisiana and even South Dakota might be in play.

      We need to have as many of their seats in play as we can, because almost never — never? — do all the contested Senate races all go the same way, even in wave elections. There’s always one or two exceptions that prevent a sweep.

      In 2006, Harold Ford was competitive in Tennessee right up to the last, and Pederson was supposed to be competitive in Arizona from a year or so before the election. We won RI, PA, OH, MO, MT, and VA, but lost TN and AZ. Taking six out of eight contested seats was great, but we did not win them all. For another example, in 2002, the Repubs almost, almost swept the South where we had strong candidates in FL, SC, GA, NC, TX — lost them all but held on to one seat in LA.

      Take 2006 as the benchmark, with the Democrats winning 6 out of 8 major contests. Well, three out of four ain’t bad at all. But to get a veto-proof majority — up 10 seats, with that ratio we’d need to be challenging hard in 13 races. So we got a ways to go yet.

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